The era of record-low mortgage rates is over.
The average rate on a 30-year loan has jumped from about 5 percent to more than 5.3 percent in just the past week. As mortgages get more expensive, more would-be homeowners are priced out of the market — a threat to the fragile recovery in the housing market.
And if you wanted to refinance at a super-low rate, you may have missed your chance. Mortgages under 4 percent are still available, but only for loans that reset in five or seven years, probably to higher rates.
Rates are going up because of the improving economy and the end of a government push to make mortgages cheaper.
For people putting their homes on the market this spring, rising rates may actually be a good thing. Buyers are racing to complete their purchases and lock in something decent before rates go even higher.
It is all about affordability. For every 1 percentage point rise in rates, 300,000 to 400,000 would-be buyers are priced out of the market in a given year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The rule of thumb is that every 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates reduces a buyer’s purchasing power by about 10 percent.
For example, taking out a 30-year mortgage for $300,000 at a rate of 5 percent will cost you about $1,600 a month, not including taxes and insurance. But the same monthly payment at a rate of 6 percent will only get you a loan of $270,000.
Many analysts forecast rates will rise as high as 6 percent by early next year. If they go much higher, the already shaky housing recovery could stall. And that could slow the broader economic rebound.
In a normal market, with home prices steadily rising, a jump in rates does not cause a big dip in demand.
That is because people know their homes will eventually rise in value, and are willing to accept a higher mortgage payment.
But now home prices are flat nationally and still falling in some places. Potential buyers are nervous about jumping in.
So the question is, should you buy now while rates are low but starting to rise and risk losing equity if home values continue to fall or wait until you think prices have hit bottom but rates are higher. Don’t know? Call me and we’ll figure it out.
Source: In part from Alan Zibel and Adrian Sainz
